Gabriel Moreno Clutch Lead Swing: Win Probability & Leverage Visualizer

Chase Field Diamond & Ball Flight Trajectory Click bases to toggle runners

Inning & Half

Outs (0, 1, 2)

Score Margin (D-backs)

-1

Hit / At-Bat Outcome

Statcast Exit Velo: 103.4 mph

Launch Angle: 18°

Clutch Impact & Sabermetric Calculations D-backs Take Lead

Win Probability Added (WPA)

+0.443

+44.3% Win Shift for D-backs

Leverage Index (LI)

2.85

High Clutch Situation (>2.5x avg)

Pre vs Post Win Exp. (WE)

34.2% → 78.5%

Net Swing: +44.3%

RE24 Run Expectancy Delta

+1.48

0.88 runs → 2.36 total impact

Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probability: 78.5% Opponent: 21.5%

0% | Yellow Marker = Pre-Swing Baseline (34.2%) 100%

Counterfactual Outcome Matrix (Same Inning & Runners)

Play Scenario	Score Post	Post WE	WPA Delta	RE24 Δ

Why Gabriel Moreno's Swing Was Decisive: Trailing by 1 run in the late innings (7th) with runners on 1st & 2nd and 1 out elevates the base Leverage Index to 2.85. Moreno's 103.4 mph liner into the left-center gap drove in 2 runs, immediately flipping game win expectancy from 34.2% to 78.5% (a mammoth +0.443 WPA swing).