Funding-flow map
select a participant or flowTax base +1.2%Grant share 28%Debt service $63MFare coverage 19%Tax base +1.2%Grant share 28%Debt service $63MFare coverage 19%
Municipal Project Finance Scenario Lab
Synthetic data · transparent formulas · no political or investment recommendation
See who pays, when, and under which assumptions.
Transit upgrade worked case: faster travel and grant support coexist with construction overrun risk, weak fare coverage, concentrated tax exposure, and uncertain commercial growth.
Financing mix
shares must total 100%Lifecycle economics
nominal base caseFormula: annual debt service uses a level-payment annuity. Lifecycle cost adds capital, debt interest, operations, maintenance reserve, and contingency. All figures are synthetic.
Shock lab
layer one shock at a timeSensitivity range
low / base / highTax-base growth0.4–2.1%
Break-even ridership146K/day
Coverage range0.82–1.34x
No shock applied. Stressed-case risk remains driven by tax concentration and weak fare coverage.
Milestone and maintenance timeline
timing is not causal proofPlanningCompleted synthetic example
ProcurementQ4 2026 ± 3 mo
Construction2027–2029 · overrun risk
Ramp2030 · ridership uncertainty
Steady operations2032 target
Major maintenance2040 reserve draw
Source and claim register
Distributional view
separate burden from preferenceHouseholds
Businesses
Visitors
Transfers
Fees
This chart shows modeled funding exposure, not welfare, fairness, or political preference.