Myanmar Opium Trade & Junta Revenue Flow Simulator

Historical / Policy Presets

Policy Levers

Eradication Pressure 15%

Military poppy field destruction flights and mechanized crop cutting.

Corruption & Anti-Smuggling 20%

Customs checkpoint integrity, junta internal affairs, border controls.

Regional Instability 75%

Armed conflict intensity across Shan, Kachin, and Kayah states.

Alternative Livelihood Subsidies 10%

UNODC / NGO replacement coffee, avocado, and rubber cash crops.

Supply-Chain Flow & Junta Taxation Network Simulated Throughput: Active

Poppy Cultivation

47,100 ha

Hectares under active cultivation

Potential Opium Yield

790 t

Estimated dry opium metric tons

Illicit Market Value

$1,200M

Gross wholesale & export value (USD)

Junta Revenue Share

35%

$420M direct checkpoints & kickbacks

Trade Risk Index

68 / 100

Border interception & conflict penalty

Intelligence & Policy Assessment

Under prevailing conditions of elevated regional conflict (75%) and low customs enforcement (20%), poppy cultivation expands across Shan State highlands. The Tatmadaw military junta and allied Border Guard Forces (BGF) extract an estimated 35% of total value through transit checkpoints, river toll stations, and chemical precursor monopolies, netting approximately $420M in illicit financial stabilization.