Global Opium Supply & Balloon Effect Simulator

Empirical Model
Global Supply
1,980 tons
-71.7% vs 2021
Displacement Rate
94.7%
Supply Substituted
Equilibrium Price
$2,850 / kg
+340% Price Shock
Synthetic Penetration
+42.0%
Synthetic Substitution Index
Primary Substitute
Myanmar (Golden Triangle)
Top Regional Surge
Geopolitical Supply Nodes
Afghanistan (Golden Crescent)
Myanmar (Golden Triangle)
Latin America / Other
Synthetic Production Labs
Macro Policy Scenarios Presets
Interactive Enforcement Controls
Simulation Timeline 2025
Afghanistan Enforcement Severity 95%
Myanmar Capacity Expansion 157%
Demand Elasticity & Synthetic Shift 1.42x
Regional Supply Dynamics (2020–2030)
UNODC Grounded Analytical Evidence
Afghanistan 2022 Ban Impact: Following the April 2022 Taliban decree, Afghan production plummeted from 6,200 tons baseline down to ~330 tons in 2025 (-95%). Supply inelasticity pushed global buyers toward Southeast Asia, triggering a surge in Myanmar to over 1,000 tons, along with a +42% spike in synthetic opioid market penetration.
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