Climate & Physical Scenarios
Input Variables
Temperature Anomaly (ΔT)
+2.4 °C
Accelerates surface ablation rate, englacial conduit expansion, and subglacial basal lubrication.
Meltwater Lake Volume
1,450,000 m³
Hydrostatic reservoir creating immense vertical hydrostatic head on moraine dam walls.
Moraine Permeability (k)
0.35
Porous internal sediment matrix; lower values trap subglacial water, spiking basal pore pressure.
Seismic / Rockfall Trigger Level
1.2 g
Dynamic seismic shocks and permafrost debuttressing from steep Himalayan valley slopes.
Attribution & Hazard Telemetry
Collapse Risk Score
84.6
Critical instability threshold: 75.0
Trigger Confidence
High Attribution
Anthropogenic warming influence
Est. Outflow Discharge
1,620,000 m³
Debris + melt outburst surge
Basal Shear Stress
238 kPa
Driving stress vs bed friction
Primary Mode of Valley Failure
Subglacial Hydro-Fracturing & Moraine Breach
Subglacial water pressure exceeds basal ice overburden. Meltwater penetrates deep transverse crevasses, causing thermal erosion and sudden hydraulic rupture of the terminal moraine embankment.
Scientific Context: Based on remote-sensing analyses and climate attribution studies following catastrophic Himalayan glacial detachment events. High-altitude Himalayan glaciers are warming at nearly 1.8x the global mean rate, accelerating subglacial water cavity formation and unstable moraine impoundments.