Primary Lab

2028 Democratic Primary Scenario Matrix & Endorsement Flow Explorer

CNN / POPBASE ARCHIVE Gavin Newsom: "I don't know if she runs, but we'll see. But I wouldn't run if she ran. Why would I? I wouldn't do that to her. I wouldn't do that to you. I wouldn't waste everyone's time."
Candidate Entry Toggles
Kamala Harris Vice President / Flagbearer
Gavin Newsom California Governor
CNN Pledge Active: Newsom pledged not to challenge Harris in 2028, avoiding vote fracture.
Scenario Presets
Early Surrogates & Coalitions
Base Support Weight 38%
Endorsement Network Flow (D3.js) Surrogate Alignment Topology
Harris
Newsom
Other/Field
Surrogate
Primary State Delegate Allocations
Kamala Harris 44.0% (1,748 Delegates)
Gavin Newsom 0.0% (0 Delegates - Yielded)
Non-Aligned / Field Challengers 56.0% (2,224 Delegates)
Real-Time Simulation Output
Projected Delegate Share 0.44 Coordinated Ticket / Non-Competing
Primary Coalition Split Unified Moderate Base
Conditional Non-Conflict Verified
Newsom defers to Harris per CNN 2028 pledge; zero vote splitting observed.
Scenario Decision Matrix
Scenario Primary Viability Donor Unity
Harris Solo Consolidated 92% Solid
Harris vs Newsom Divided Primary 48% Fractured
Newsom Solo Consolidated 88% Solid
Open Field Multi-Candidate 35% Dispersed
Canonical State ID: 2028-AGG-DEFER-01
Sourced Context & Public Records: PopBase CNN report regarding Gavin Newsom's explicit statement on Kamala Harris and 2028: "I wouldn't run if she ran. Why would I? I wouldn't do that to her." Modeling reflects Democratic National Committee delegate thresholds (15% viability rule) and historical early-window primary state calendars (SC, NH, NV, IA).
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