Oil Chokepoint & Pipeline Bypass Simulator
Simulate maritime disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Suez against land-based crude bypass systems, including the Saudi East-West Petroline (5.0M bpd) and Abu Dhabi ADCOP (1.5M bpd).
Corridor Flow Allocations & Bottleneck Status
Global Transit: 100% Modeled| Corridor / Segment | Type | Design Capacity | Current Flow | Utilization | Status |
|---|
Why Saudi Arabia's Petroline (East-West Pipeline) is Crucial
Saudi Arabia's 1,200 km Petroline (East-West Crude Oil Pipeline) connects the giant processing facilities at Abqaiq and fields in the Eastern Province directly to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
With an operational capacity of up to 5.0 million barrels per day (and expandable to 7.0M bpd), it represents the world's most significant strategic relief valve for petroleum moving out of the Persian Gulf without having to transit the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.
- Bypass Capability: Allows crude to bypass both Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, loading directly onto VLCCs in the northern Red Sea.
- Geopolitical Hedge: In periods of regional naval escalation or pipeline maintenance restarts, operating Petroline at maximum capacity prevents catastrophic supply halts to European and Asian buyers.
Chokepoints vs Cape of Good Hope Economics
When both Hormuz and the southern Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb) face elevated war risk or interdiction, tankers must either utilize overland pipelines or divert around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.
- Transit Distance: Adds approximately 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles per voyage between the Persian Gulf and European ports.
- Voyage Days: Diverting around Africa adds 10 to 14 additional sailing days each way for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC).
- Fleet Absorption: The longer rotation absorbs between 6% and 9% of global tanker fleet availability, driving tanker charter rates (Worldscale / Day rates) sharply higher.