Macro Levers & Control
Partisan Lens Dynamic: When a Democrat controls the White House, Republicans exhibit higher sensitivity to inflation and gas prices, yielding an asymmetric souring penalty.
Consumer Sentiment by Affiliation
Historical Index Scale (0–100)
Democrat Index
81.0
Independent Index
58.0
Republican Index
42.0
Partisan Spread
39.0 pt
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Sentiment Spread (Gap)
Driver Breakdown (Souring Attribution)
| Factor | Elasticity / Effect | Impact Points |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI Drag | -1.5 pt / 1% CPI over 2% | -5.2 |
| Interest Rate Drag | -0.53 pt / 1% Fed Funds | -2.8 |
| Partisan Lens Asymmetry Weight | Out-party multiplier | 0.68 |
| Republican Souring Delta | Net swing vs objective fundamentals | -8.4 |
| Composite Consumer Confidence | Weighted National Mean | 56.6 |
Demographic Cohort Souring Index
| Cohort | Base Sentiment | Net Souring Rate | Projected Score |
|---|
Audit Telemetry Verified
Simulation state computed using Michigan Survey calibration. Partisan gap spread: 39.0 points. Composite index: 56.6.