Rafael Flores Jr. Pirates HR Game State & Probability Lab

1. Game State Setup

ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) Live Post

Rafael Flores Jr. with a DEEP SOLO HR to give the Pirates a 1-run lead 🔥

Interactive Base Paths (Click to Toggle Runners)

Inning

Outs

Score Margin (Pre-Swing)

Active Batter Rafael Flores Jr. Pittsburgh Pirates

Win Prob Before 48.2% Game leverage: High

Win Prob After HR 67.5% +19.3% Delta

Resulting Score 1 - 0 Pirates take lead

Hit Trajectory Simulator (Statcast Profile: 418 FT) Ready

Inning-by-Inning Win Probability Shift Leverage index: 2.14

Download full situational state schema pirates-hr-game-state-30.json