Tampa Bay Rays 7th Inning Comeback & Win Probability Swing Lab

🏟️ 7th Inning Diamond & Base-Out State Bottom 7th | 0 Outs

Rays (Deficit → Lead)

3 → 4

Opponent

Win Expectancy

14.0%

Leverage Index

1.85 (High)

Scrub PA: Pre-7th

Pre-7th Inning Context: Rays trail by 3 runs. Base-out state: Empty, 0 Outs. Initial Win Expectancy sits at 14.0%.

📈 Live Win Expectancy Swing (WPA) Cumulative WPA: +0.00

📊 RE24 Run Expectancy & Out State RE: 0.481 runs

Expected additional runs to score in remainder of inning based on current runners and outs:

⚙️ Managerial Counterfactual Sandbox

Simulate alternative decisions to see how Rays win probability model adjusts:

📋 Plate Appearance Ledger

PA	Batter	Count	Event	Runs	WE	Δ WPA

Statistical Model Note: Win Expectancy calculations represent historical win probabilities for MLB home teams in the 7th inning under corresponding run differentials, base runners, and out states.