Polymarket
AI Policy Odds & Bayesian Engine
Model 11% baseline market odds across sequential legislative hurdles & evidence updates
Presets:
Baseline 11%
Fast-Track (42%)
Gridlock (2%)
Reset All
Sequential Legislative Pipeline
Prior Probabilities & News Bayes Factors
Probability Tree & Polymarket Position
Expected Yields & Kelly Criterion Sizing
Model Prob (YES)
11.0%
Base: 11.0%
Total Bayes Factor
1.00
Neutral Signal
YES ROI / Payout
+809%
EV: $809.09
Polymarket YES Price ($):
Target Capital Stake ($):
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