Precinct Signal Extrapolator Bayesian Market Engine

Extract genuine election odds shift from skewed early precinct updates

Presets:

Precinct Inputs

Reported Precinct Name

Reported Vote Share

Baseline Expected Share

Precinct Total Votes Cast 3,500

Electorate & Market Priors

Prior Win Probability (Market Odds) 52.0%

Total Race Electorate Size 2,500,000

Demographic / College Bias Control 1.3x

Updated Candidate Win Prob

56.4%

+4.4% shift from prior

Bayes Factor

1.34

Inconclusive to Moderate

Swing vs Baseline

+12.0%

Outperformed campus baseline

Extrapolated Race Swing

+1.84%

Estimated statewide drift

Prior vs Posterior Win Probability Distribution

Evidence Decomposition & Analysis

Evaluating precinct update...

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