LMSR Engine v2.4 • Polymarket Grounded

Geopolitical Event Prediction Market Odds & LMSR Solver

Leading Implied Prob 88.0% In-Absentia Execution
LMSR Market Cost C(q) $138.63 Liquidity b = 100.0
Estimated Spread 1.8% Orderbook depth delta
Bayesian Shift Delta +0.0% vs Historical Precedent
Multi-Outcome Implied Odds Matrix Sum P(O) = 1.00
LMSR Buy Share Simulator
Trade Cost ΔC: $21.45
Avg Price / Share: $0.858
Risk & Arbitrage Diagnostic
Market Entropy: 0.82 bits
Max Market Exposure: $69.31
Implied Odds Ratio: 7.33 : 1
Bayesian Likelihood Ratio: 2.52
Historical Scenario Base Conviction Extradition Prob Custody State In-Absentia P(O₁) Extradited P(O₂) Status
Geopolitical Prediction Market Solver • Active Model State

Model solved with math.js: Base conviction 88.0%, Extradition likelihood 35.0%, In-Absentia custody status. Implied execution probability is 88.00% with an LMSR market cost of $138.63.

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