Expected Value (EV)
+28.89%
+$0.29 per $1.00 contract
Optimal Kelly Bet
$1,181
11.82% of Bankroll
Sharpe Ratio (Single Bet)
0.59
Risk/Reward Profile
Monte Carlo Median Final
$24,150
+141.5% Median Return
Simulation Analysis & Proof Summary
Computed Live
Contract Edge (True Prob - Market Price):
+13.00%
Full Kelly Fraction Formula [ (p - q) / (1 - p) ]:
23.64%
Selected Fractional Kelly Bet ($):
$1,181.82
Monte Carlo Ruin Probability (<20% Bankroll):
0.40%
95th Percentile Outcome Target:
$84,210.00