Prediction Market Odds & Payoff Simulator

Market Parameters Live Config

Contract Preset

Contract Title

Market Price (Implied Odds) $0.86 (86.0%)

Estimated Real Probability 90.0%

Total Bankroll ($)

Shares Purchased

Position Stance

Expected Return & Kelly Metrics

Implied Odds 86.0%

Total Cost $86.00

Max Payout $100.00

EV / Share

Expected ROI 4.65%

Optimal Kelly Fraction 28.57%

Expected Payoff vs Estimated Probability D3 Dynamic Curve

Monte Carlo Election Outcome Simulator (1,000 Trials)

Simulated Wins 898 / 1000

Mean Portfolio Payout $89.80

5th Percentile (VaR) $0.00

Simulated ROI +4.42%