```html Prediction Market Liquidity & Depth Impact Simulator (88% Initial Odds)

Prediction Market Liquidity Depth Simulator

Base Odds: 88.0%
Quoted Mid Odds 88.0% Initial Price Level
Post-Trade Odds 90.0% +2.0% Odds Move
Average Fill Price 89.0ยข 11,236 Shares
Slippage / Impact 1.14% Cost of Execution
1. Order Book Depth & Execution Wedge
Shaded wedge displays shares absorbed by order
2. Order Size vs. Implied Probability Shift (Calibration Curve)
Comparing Thin vs Medium vs Deep Liquidity
3. Market Depth Calibration Table (Initial 88% Odds)
Order Size ($) Thin Depth ($1k/%) Medium Depth ($5k/%) Deep Market ($25k/%) Convex Wall ($50k/%)

How Depth Changes Displayed Probability in Prediction Markets

In a prediction market starting at a quoted probability of 88.0%, the displayed odds represent the marginal clearing price between YES and NO contracts. Unlike traditional financial markets where quotes are fixed until canceled, prediction market order books exhibit varying depth density.

Order Book Wedges

A large buy order consumes available ask offers, driving up the instantaneous marginal cost per share and advancing the implied outcome probability higher above the starting 88% anchor.

Depth Calibration

Thin order books suffer severe market impact from modest trades (e.g. $5,000 pushing odds from 88% to 93%), whereas high-depth institutional pools absorb large orders with minimal slippage.

Average Fill vs Final Price

The post-trade displayed probability reflects the final marginal share price required to fill the order, which is always higher than the average cost paid across all filled shares.