Simulation Scenario
Endorsement Strength (α)
0.75
Credibility and clout of endorsing figure (e.g., Former President endorsement = 0.75-0.90).
Primary Runner-Up Transfer Rate
0.68
Proportion of defeated runner-up faction voters converted by unity call.
Base General Election Win Odds
52.0%
Baseline prediction market implied contract price before endorsement event.
Voter Faction Breakdown
Loyalist Party Base
45.0%
Progressive/Challenger Faction
35.0%
Undecided Swing Voters
20.0%
Updated General Election Odds
58.4%
+6.4% Implied Shift
Party Unity Swing Index
78.2
+12.1 vs Baseline
Effective Turnout Retention
88.8%
Aligned Base Mobilization
Voter Faction Realignment Flow (Bayesian Transfer Matrix)
Interactive D3 Stream
Endorsement Sensitivity Analysis (Odds vs Endorsement Strength α)
Market Analysis Summary: High-profile endorsement with 0.75 strength increases challenger faction retention to 68.0%, driving general election win contract odds from 52.0% to 58.4% (+6.4¢ contract shift on Polymarket).
Canonical proof target: POST_ODDS=58.4% | DELTA=+6.4% | UNITY_INDEX=78.2