Refinery Outage & Plume Dispersion Risk Modeler

Assess blast destruction radius, downwind Gaussian toxic smoke dispersion, and refined fuel shortfall across crude distillation units, catalytic crackers, and tank farms.

Facility Status: ACTIVE FIRE & UNIT TRIP
Downwind Smoke Travel (1 hr): 16.2 km
Overpressure Blast Ring: 340 m (1.5 psi)
[Click/drag on refinery canvas to reposition strike epicenter | Wind arrow indicates plume trajectory]
Refinery Outage Loss 181,500 bpd 75.0% of site throughput offline
Daily Gasoline Deficit 9,800 t/day Supplies ~2.1M vehicles/day
Daily Diesel / Jet Deficit 13,400 t/day Incl. 2,900 t/day Jet A-1
Est. Unit Repair Timeline 14 - 26 wks Sanctions & bespoke column lead times

Gaussian Downwind Dispersion & Population Hazard Corridors

● Active calculation updated in real time
Zone Perimeter Distance Downwind Peak PM2.5 / SO₂ Thermal / Toxic Impact Recommended Civilian & Tactical Action
Gaussian dispersion modeled with Pasquill-Gifford Briggs coefficients. Outage yields derived from Nelson Complexity index standard assays.

1. Crude Unit Fragility

Crude Distillation Units (CDU) operate as the sole atmospheric gateway for crude oil entering an oil refinery. A sustained strike or fire directly on column trays or desalter furnaces shuts down downstream fluid catalytic crackers (FCC) and reformers due to feedstock starvation, even if secondary units remain untouched.

2. Pasquill-Gifford Dispersion

Plume dispersion follows atmospheric Gaussian equations: $C(x,y,z) = \frac{Q}{2\pi u \sigma_y \sigma_z} \exp(-\frac{y^2}{2\sigma_y^2})$. Ground concentration peaks downwind based on thermal plume rise $H$ and atmospheric stability classes A through F, calculating toxic PM2.5 and SO₂ exposure rings.

3. Sanctions & Repair Lead Times

Heavy distillation columns, high-pressure hydrotreater reactors, and compressor train control systems utilize proprietary metallurgical alloys and bespoke engineering. In sanctioned regimes, lead times for replacement columns often exceed 6 to 12 months, creating structural regional fuel deficits.

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