Bayesian Probability Belief Density
PDF Shift Curve
Market Order Book Depth & Bids/Asks
Cumulative Depth Shares
Market Order Sandbox
Market Implied Probability (YES Target)
82%
Market Liquidity Depth Pool
$145,200
Position Payout Matrix & Stress Test
| Scenario | Contract Payoff | Gross Payout | Net Profit | Implied ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolution: YES Zoox launches Vegas rides |
$1.00 / YES | $120.00 | +$16.20 | +15.6% |
| Resolution: NO Delay / No paid rides |
$1.00 / NO | $30.00 | -$73.80 | -71.1% |
Total Capital Invested:
$103.80
Expected Value (EV):
+$0.00 (Delta 0.0%)
Break-even Probability:
81.8% YES
Live Execution Proof & Contract Summary
ACTIVE SIMULATION
Simulation initialized for Amazon's Zoox driverless launch in Las Vegas. Market baseline set to 82.0% probability ($0.82 YES / $0.18 NO). Position of 120 YES shares and 30 NO shares yields $103.80 total exposure with an Expected Value matching active Bayesian order book depth.