COL // 9TH

Rockies Last-Strike Walk-Off Leverage & WPA Analyzer

Ground truth: Brett Sullivan walk-off hit with Colorado down to final strike vs @MLB verified report

BOT 9TH • 2 OUTS
Batter: Brett Sullivan (#C) | Venue: Coors Field (Denver, CO)
Pre-Pitch Win %
9.2%
Post-Play Win %
100.0%
Win Prob Added (WPA)
+0.908
Leverage Index: 4.85 (Extreme)

Leverage Controller & Pitch Sequencer

Live State Active
Pitch Count (Must have 2 strikes for last-strike context) 2 Strikes (Final Strike)
Base Runner Matrix (Bottom 9th Walk-Off Setup) Runners on 1st & 2nd
Score Deficit in Bot 9th Down 1 Run (e.g. 5-6)
9-Sector Strike Zone
Selected: Heart of Zone (Zone 5) - Sullivan Barrels Fastball
Coors Field Layout
Right-Center Field Gap Walk-Off
Hit Trajectory / Contact Type Gap Double (Walk-Off)

Win Expectancy Dynamic Curve (D3.js)

Pre-Pitch to Contact Transition
Exit Velocity
103.4 mph
Launch Angle
19°
Est. Distance
382 ft
Expected wOBA
.684
The Coors Field Final-Strike Miracle: In the bottom of the 9th inning with two outs and two strikes, the fielding defense holds an overwhelming 90.8% win expectancy. Sullivan's barrel into the cavernous 415-ft right-center gap scored both trailing runners instantly, executing a massive +0.908 WPA shift, one of the top 1% leverage swings achievable in Major League Baseball.
Coors Field Altitude Factor: 5,280 ft altitude reduces aerodynamic drag by ~9%, extending deep fly ball carry by 12–15 feet compared to sea-level parks, significantly expanding the outfield gap defense responsibilities during 2-out no-doubles depth.

Iconic MLB "Down to the Final Strike" Walk-Off Archetypes

Historical Leverage Comparison
Date / Game Batter & Team Situation & Count Pre-Pitch WP Result WPA Delta Leverage (LI)
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