Market Calibration
Market Implied Probability (PYES)
78%
49 Days
NO Implied Odds
3.55 : 1
YES Implied Odds
0.28 : 1
Brier Score Benchmark
0.1716
Expected Decay / Day
-$15.92
Expected Value & Probability Shift Curves
Green: YES Contract EV ($1.00 Payout)
Red: NO Contract EV ($1.00 Payout)
Contract Position Payoff Analysis
BUY YES CONTRACTS
Share Price:
$0.780
Contract Volume:
Payout if YES:
$1,282.05
Max Profit / ROI:
+$282.05 (+28.21%)
BUY NO CONTRACTS
Share Price:
$0.220
Contract Volume:
Payout if NO:
$4,545.45
Max Profit / ROI:
+$3,545.45 (+354.55%)
SENSITIVITY SHIFT (+10% / -10%)
If Prob -> 88%:
+$128.21 YES Val
If Prob -> 68%:
-$128.21 YES Val
Expected Value (EV):
$0.00 Fair Value
SCOTUS Emergency Docket Milestones (Deadline: Sept 30)
AUG 12
Polymarket opens White House Ballroom construction emergency docket market at 78% implied YES.
Baseline 78%
AUG 25
District Court emergency injunction appeal filed; SCOTUS brief submission window.
Vol Delta ~ 12%
SEP 10
Administrative Stay decision window by Circuit / Emergency Circuit Justice.
Vol Delta ~ 25%
SEP 30
Resolution Deadline: Final SCOTUS ruling on emergency construction authorization.
Market Resolution
Canonical Proof Surface (scotus-ballroom-market-simulator-89)
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