GOP Majority Probability
68.4%
Median Seats: 51
DEM Majority Probability
31.6%
Median Seats: 49
Decisive Tipping Point
Ohio
Pivotal 51st GOP Seat
Simulated 100-Seat Chamber Arc
● DEM 49
★ 50-Seat Line
● GOP 51
10,000-Trial Seat Distribution & 80% Range
Tipping-Point Race Ladder
Decision Desk HQ Outlook: Under baseline modeling, Republicans retain a narrow 51-49 edge. West Virginia is an almost certain GOP flip (99%), while Montana (62% GOP) and Ohio (54% GOP) represent the crucial tipping-point threshold.