3-Game Slate Bankroll Recovery Visualizer Week 1 Model

NFL Late Afternoon & SNF Bankroll Mathematics
“After review, there’s still 3 more games I can lose money on today (I lost half my bankroll in Week 1)” — @br_betting
Initial Peak → Current $1,000 → $500 50% Drawdown ($500 deficit)
Expected Slate Value $497.16 -0.57% net slate EV (Vig drag)
Clean Sweep (3-0 WWW) $568.18 Leaves $431.82 gap to breakeven
Slate Ruin Probability 0.0% Bankroll < $50 on slate end
Staking Strategy 5% Flat Units
Current Bankroll ($) $500
Presets & Tilt Profiles
Base Unit Stake ($) $25.00
Remaining 3 Slate Games Odds & Juice
Late Matchup 1 (4:05 PM) 47.6%
Late Matchup 2 (4:25 PM) 47.6%
Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM) 47.6%
The 50% Drawdown Trap
When you lose 50% of your bankroll ($1,000 → $500), you need a +100% net gain to return to even. Standard flat units across 3 games can never fix this in one afternoon.
8-Branch Slate Decision Tree Click nodes to inspect paths
Branch Result Ending Bankroll Net Slate P/L Probability Gap to $1,000 Breakeven
1,000-Run Slate Simulation Bankroll Distribution
Distribution of ending bankrolls after the 3-game slate across 1,000 randomized iterations.
Clawback Timeline (No Tilt) Disciplined Math

Baseline Deficit: -$500.00 (-50%)

Units to breakeven: 22.0 units (at +0.909x payout)

Estimated Slates: 14 to 20 full Sunday slates assuming a sharp 54.5% win-rate.

Trying to compress this multi-week clawback into 1 late-afternoon slate is the exact psychological mechanism behind total account bust-outs.