Model Parameters
Historical Slate Presets
⚠️ Primary Risk Vulnerability
Heavy favorite vulnerability in legs 2 and 4
Ticket Survival Decay vs. Leg Accumulation
Calculated cumulative parlay probability vs. expected survivor attrition
Parlay Survival
Survivor Baseline
Parlay Leg Attrition & Vulnerability Matrix
American Odds: -110 equiv.
| Leg # | Target Type | Individual Win% | Cumulative Survival | Vulnerability Status |
|---|
Analytical Takeaway & Mathematical Assumptions
In typical survivor pools, over 65% of the participant pool crowds onto the top two heavy favorites each week. When high-severity upset slates trigger (upset_severity > 0.30), correlated underdogs knock out multi-leg parlays exponentially faster than naive independent probability calculations assume. This simulator applies non-linear correlation penalties across multi-ticket exposure.