UK Labour & Sterling Transmission Explorer

Simulate BoE Policy Repricing & GBP Spot Transmission from ONS Labour Data
Accelerated BoE Easing / Sterling Drag

Macroeconomic Inputs

Wage Growth (3m/YoY %): 4.6%
ILO Unemployment Rate (%): 4.7%
Vacancies / Unemp Ratio: 0.52
Baseline BoE Bank Rate: 5.00%

Preset Scenarios

Next BoE Cut Probability
68.5%
+32.5% vs base
2Y SONIA Swap Shift
-18.4 bps
Repricing Lower
Spot GBP/USD
1.2830
-0.54%
Spot GBP/EUR
1.1712
-0.38%

Implied BoE Path (Next 8 MPC Meetings)

UK-US 2Y Sovereign Spread vs Spot GBP

Monetary Policy Transmission Flow

1
Labour Cooling: Regular wage growth slows to 4.6% YoY while unemployment climbs to 4.7%.
2
Services Disinflation: Unit labour cost pressures recede, opening the door for MPC rate cuts.
3
Yield Curve Compression: 2Y SONIA rates fall 18.4 bps; market prices in 32.5% higher odds of near-term BoE cuts.
4
FX Differential Drag: Uncovered interest parity adjustment drags GBP/USD down to 1.2830 (-0.54%).
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