LIVE SIMULATOR
Prediction Market Subpoena Impact Simulator
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Catalyst News:
Florida subpoenas Anthony Fauci over COVID vaccine handling & alleged "self-dealing".
Source: @Polymarket
Probability Trajectory & Valuations
Implied P(YES)
Contract Value ($)
Implied Probability
0.00%
YES Share Price
$0.00
Expected Payout
$0.00
Brier Loss Score
0.000
State: Initializing...
Milestone Catalysts & Position
Trading Position Simulator
Long YES Shares
Entry Price ($)
Bayesian Updating Mechanics:
Adjusting individual event likelihoods recalculates downstream conditional probabilities via sequential Bayes factors. Share pricing directly reflects $0.00 to $1.00 YES contract value.
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