Prediction Market Manipulation & Enforcement Simulator

Attack Workbench

Order Injector

Precedent Scenario

Manipulation Tactic

Injected Phantom Volume $65,000

Order Cancellation Target 98.5%

In-Market Window Before Cancel 14s

Regulatory Context: CEA Section 6c(1) and CFTC Rule 180.1 forbid intentional quote manipulation, bid layering without bona fide intent to execute, and artificial event contract price distortion.

Contract Under Surveillance General Election / Policy Outcome

Implied Probability

48.0% +0.0%

Observed Range 48.0% -> 48.0%

Book Depth (USD) $142,000

ORDER BOOK DEPTH CHART (0¢ TO 100¢) Live Bids vs Asks (Yellow = Phantom)

Bids (YES Orders)

Depth ($)	Shares	Price

Asks (NO Orders)

Price	Shares	Depth ($)

REAL-TIME ORDER AUDIT LOG

[SYS] Base market maker quotes seeded142k USD

Forensic Surveillance

SURVEILLANCE LIVE

Anomaly Score

14.0

Threshold: 80.0

Cancel Ratio

12.4%

Flag if > 90%

Distortion Flag

None

Spread Dislocation

Executed Vol

$8,200

Actual Fills

Regulatory Penalty Model

Statutory Base Disgorgement: $0

Willfulness Multiplier (CFTC): 1.0x

Recommended Fine (USD): $0