Substance Risk & Age-of-Initiation Trajectory Explorer

Cohort Parameters Interactive Inputs

Simulated Cohort Size 100,000

Early Initiation Risk Multiplier (<15 vs 21+) 6.5x

Early Initiation Cutoff < 15 yrs

Delayed Boundary Threshold ≥ 21 yrs

18–25 Age Group Use Prevalence 39.0%

26+ Age Group Use Prevalence 23.9%

Prevention Intervention Efficiency 30% Delay

Shifts early initiators into delayed boundary streams

Export Results

Early Use SUD Conversion 32.5% ~8,125 individuals

Delayed Use SUD Conversion 5.0% ~3,750 individuals

Elevated Risk Multiplier 6.50x Ratio (<15 vs ≥21 initiation)

Intervention Prevented Cases 2,062 17.3% total SUD reduction

Epidemiological Grounding (@stats_feed): Users who try an illegal drug before age 15 are 6.5 times more likely to develop a substance use disorder (SUD) than those who wait until age 21 or later. Baseline drug use prevalence peaks at 39.0% among ages 18–25 compared to 23.9% for ages 26+.

Cohort Population Flow & Transition Streams

Visualizing population flows from Initiation Age Window to Lifetime SUD Outcome

Cumulative Lifetime SUD Development Hazard Curves

Trajectory curves comparing early initiation (<15), delayed initiation (≥21), and intervention scenario

Detailed Cohort Risk Breakdown Table

Cohort Stream	Population Count	% of Cohort	SUD Conversion Rate	Projected SUD Cases	Relative Risk Ratio