Sudan Diplomatic Resolution Framework

Model v2.4
Scenarios:
Policy Leverage Levers
Targeted RSF/SAF Arms Embargo 35%

Interdiction of external military logistics and regional arms transfers.

Aid Corridor Security Guarantees 60%

Monitored demilitarized access routes across Port Sudan, Chad border, & Khartoum.

Gold Supply Chain Sanctions 40%

Financial tracking and disruption of illicit gold revenue networks supporting belligerents.

Civilian Grassroots Engagement 25%

Empowerment of local Resistance Committees and emergency response rooms in negotiations.

Negotiation Leverage Balance
42%
Ceasefire Feasibility Index
Actor Balance & Spatial Corridor Matrix
Interactive Vector Balance Dynamic
SAF (Port Sudan Base)
RSF (West / Darfur Base)
Foreign Financial/Arms Backers
Civilian & Humanitarian Corridors
Displacement
10.8M
↓ 0.0M projected
Aid Flow Reach
38%
Baseline Reach
Conflict Intensity
High
5 Active Fronts
Famine Risk
Extreme
Phase 5 Threat

Corridor Logistics Breakdown

Port Sudan → Khartoum 45% Access
Chad Border (Adré) → Darfur 30% Access
South Sudan Border → Kordofan 55% Access

Strategic Assessment

Current baseline balance shows severe humanitarian friction and high foreign material leverage supporting ongoing frontlines.

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