Negotiation Viability
24% LOW
Strategic Bottleneck:
Asymmetric external resupply maintains battlefield parity and discourages capitulation
Gold Trade: RSF-controlled Jebel Amer & Darfur artisanal gold exported via illicit transit to Gulf hubs fuels continuous militia payrolls.
Red Sea Port & Tariffs: SAF retains Port Sudan customs and agricultural Nile corridors, securing sovereign legitimacy and state procurement.
UAV Proliferation: Iranian Mohajer-6 & UAE Wing Loong drones introduced high-tech air combat, entrenching positional artillery.
Zero-Sum Command: Neither Burhan nor Hemedti views power-sharing as survivable post-Khartoum destruction.
Patron Disunity: Conflicting strategic postures among Cairo, Abu Dhabi, and Tehran prevent unified sanctions enforcement.
Parallel Governance: Bifurcated administrative structures in Port Sudan and Nyala harden de facto partition.