Global Tariff Cost & Trade Shock Tracker

An interactive econometric simulation modeling cascading price pass-through, deadweight loss, customs duty yields, retaliatory export friction, and regressive household tax incidence across US income quintiles.

Curated Scenarios:

Avg Annual Cost Per Household

$2,618

Direct & indirect consumer inflation drag

Gross Tariff Revenue Yield

$342.5B

Annual US customs duties collected

Consumer Deadweight Loss

$89.4B

Unrecovered economic efficiency contraction

Retaliatory Export Contraction

-$94.2B

Agricultural & industrial outbound drag

Policy Parameters Real-time calibration

Universal Import Tariff 10%

Applies across all imported commodities from non-exempt partners.

Targeted Partner Tariff (China) 60%

Specific bilateral duty levied on manufactured imports from China.

Supply Chain Pass-Through 82%

Portion of customs duties transmitted to final retail consumer pricing.

Foreign Retaliatory Stance

Reciprocal foreign countermeasures targeting US soybeans, pork, and aircraft.

Dollar Appreciation Offset 15%

Estimated trade-weighted USD rise muting domestic import price spikes.

Sectoral Supply Chain Price Escalation & Direct Import Exposure

Estimated percentage retail price increase vs pre-tariff baseline

$1.56 Trillion Total Imports Modeled

Household Income Quintile Incidence (Regressive Tax Impact)

Annual dollar loss and effective disposable income percentage drag

Census Bureau CPS Model Adjusted

Comprehensive Sector Incidence & Trade Volume Matrix

Granular import volume, tariff duties, pass-through rates, and domestic retaliation drag

Sector Commodity Basket	US Annual Imports	Effective Duty	Duties Collected	Retail Price Δ	Retaliatory Export Drag