Teen Birth Rate (15–19)
13.5
per 1,000 females (Peak 61.8 in 1991)
Total Teen Drop Since 1991
-78.2%
Historic public health decline
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
1.62
Estimated lifetime births per woman
Replacement Gap (TFR vs 2.1)
-0.48
Benchmark: 2.1 births/woman
Birth Rates by Maternal Age Group (1990–2024)
Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Vital Statistics
Ages 15–19 (Teen)
Ages 20–24
Ages 25–29
Ages 30–34
Ages 35–39
Total Fertility Rate (TFR × 50)
Counterfactual Demographic Modeling: "What if Teen Births Never Dropped?"
Toggle simulation to project national annual births if 15–19 birth rates had remained frozen at the 1991 peak (61.8 / 1,000) versus the actual observed rate of 13.5 / 1,000.
Additional Annual Teen Births in 2024: 0
Media & Policy Discourse Matrix
Public Health & Mobility Frame
Consensus Triumph
Focuses on individual autonomy, reduced child poverty, and maternal education.
- 78.2% reduction: Achieved through more effective long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs) and evidence-based education.
- High School Completion: Teen mother graduation rates rose from ~50% in the 1990s to over 75% today.
- Intergenerational Poverty: Drastic reduction in children born into extreme economic vulnerability.
Demographic Replacement Frame
Structural Panic
Focuses on macro population sustainability, workforce size, and entitlement solvency.
- Sub-replacement TFR: US TFR stands at 1.62, significantly below the 2.1 rate needed to avoid long-term population decline without immigration.
- Delayed, not just avoided: While some births shifted into 30–34, overall lifetime completed fertility fell.
- Pensions & Healthcare: Fewer future workers entering the pipeline to support aging baby boomers.
Decomposition at Selected Year (2024)
Loading decomposition...
Cohort Vital Statistics Reference (CDC Multi-Decade Data)
Key benchmark years comparison
| Year | Teen (15–19) Rate | Age 20–24 Rate | Age 25–29 Rate | Age 30–34 Rate | Age 35–39 Rate | Total Fertility Rate (TFR) | Replacement Gap | Estimated Total Births |
|---|