Treasury Protection Breakdown & 4 Defensive Alternatives Simulator

Macro Shock Scenarios

Preset Stress Regimes

Yield Curve & Market Stress +300 bps

Benchmark 10Y/30Y Yield Shift +3.00%

Headline Inflation (CPI) 6.5%

Equity Market Return Shock (S&P 500) -20.0%

Defensive Asset Allocation Total: 100%

Long-Dated Treasurys (20Y+ UST)

40%

Alt 1: Ultra-Short T-Bills / Cash

15%

Alt 2: TIPS (Real Yields)

15%

Alt 3: Gold & Real Commodities

15%

Alt 4: Defined Buffer / Long Vol

15%

Long Treasury (20Y+) Return -38.2% Modified Duration: ~17.5 yrs

4-Alternative Basket Return +4.8% Blended Duration: ~1.8 yrs

Traditional 60/40 Drawdown -27.3% Positive stock-bond correlation

Modern Hedged 60/40 Return -10.1% +17.2% capital preserved

Asset Performance Under Yield Shock (Duration Breakdown Spectrum)

              Curvature: Convexity Adjusted
            

Long 20Y+ UST Ultra-Short Bills TIPS Gold Buffer Overlay

Crosshair: current shock level

Asset Class	Effective Duration	Rate Shock Impact	Inflation Impact	Simulated Return	Protection Efficacy

1. Ultra-Short T-Bills (0–3 Months)

Re-prices immediately with Fed rate hikes. Near-zero duration risk means zero capital loss while clipping 4.5%–5.5% risk-free cash yield.

2. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected)

Principal value is directly indexed to headline CPI. Offsets the purchasing power erosion that wrecks nominal long-term bond coupons.

3. Gold & Physical Commodities

Zero cash flows, zero nominal duration, and historically negative correlation to real yields and fiscal expansion during deficit spikes.

4. Buffer / Long Volatility Overlays

Uses defined option collars or tail-risk volatility structures to truncate equity drawdown without carrying high interest rate sensitivity.

Ready. Adjust yield curve shift or select historical stress presets to recompute.