Expected Value / Share
+311.1% Expected ROI
Kelly Optimal Stake
$823.53
8.24% of Bankroll
Contract Payout Multiplier
6.67x
Max Payout $1.00 per share
Projected Net Portfolio EV
$466.70
Under Full Kelly Stake
Kalshi Contract Order Book Depth
YES / NO Liquidity
Expected Return Curve (EV vs Subjective Prob)
Breakeven: 15.0%
Kelly Allocation Sensitivity Matrix
Prob vs Contract Price
| Price \ Prob | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% |
|---|
Analyst Position Strategy Brief
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Canonical Slug:
uber-ebay-acquisition-probability-89
Updated Live