The Economist Epidemiological Analysis
Vaping Harm-Reduction & Population Tradeoff Simulator
Grounding: Cochrane Review • Public Health England 95% Benchmark
Policy Scenarios
UK Harm Reduction
US Flavor Ban
Australia Rx Model
Cautious Gateway
Model Levers
Relative E-Cig Toxic Harm
5.0%
Harm vs combustible cigarettes (PHE/RCP est: ~5%)
Adult Cessation Uplift
1.80x
Multiplier over 4.0% spontaneous annual quitting
Youth Vaping Initiation
3.2%
Annual rate of never-smoking youth adopting vaping
Gateway to Combustible Rate
8.5%
% of vaping youth who transition to regular smoking
Reset Empirical Baseline
Export Analysis (.JSON)
Epidemiological Verdict
Substantial Net Benefit (Harm-Reduction Dominant)
Break-Even Gateway Threshold
28.4%
Net Life-Years Gained
+4.12M
Across 30-year population cohort
Adult Smoking Reduction
-6.8%
From 28.3M baseline smokers
Youth Gateway Smoker Delta
+0.30%
Net new combustible initiations
30-Year Cumulative Population Mortality / Life-Years Saved Differential
Sensitivity Matrix: Net Life-Years Gained (Millions) [Cessation Uplift vs Youth Initiation]
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