Population Prevalence Trajectory
Cohort transitions (N=1,000,000) over time
Epidemiological Balance Sheet
Gross QALY Gains vs. Attributable Losses
Demographic Cohort Breakdown
Final projected status at year horizon
| Cohort / User Segment | Headcount | Net QALY Impact |
|---|
Parameter Sensitivity Ranking
Impact on Net QALYs (±25% variation)
Epidemiological Assumptions & Evidence Base
Derived from Cochrane Reviews, UK Royal College of Physicians, and US FDA/CDC Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) studies.
Adult Smoking Cessation Efficacy
High-certainty evidence from Cochrane Systematic Reviews (2024) indicates nicotine e-cigarettes lead to higher 6-month cessation rates than nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) patches/gums (Relative Effect 1.63, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.04). In this model, cessation yields an average recovery of ~5.5 discounted QALYs per successful quitter compared to continuous lifetime combustible smoking.
Ref: Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2024, Issue 1. Art. No.: CD010216.Residual Harm & Youth Gateway Risks
While vapor contains far fewer toxic combustion byproducts (PAHs, carbon monoxide, nitrosamines), residual risks include pulmonary inflammation and heavy metal traces. A potential gateway effect where e-cigarette experimentation increases initiation into combustible tobacco carries high negative QALY weighting (-8.0 QALYs per lifetime smoking transition).
Ref: Royal College of Physicians UK, "E-cigarettes and harm reduction" (2021) & NASEM Consensus Study.