| Event | Inning | Bases/Outs | Play Result | Lev (LI) | WPA | New WE |
|---|
Leverage Index (LI) in Elimination
In regular season baseball, an average plate appearance has a Leverage Index of 1.0. In October "win-or-go-home" games, late-inning tied situations often surge past 4.0 LI. High leverage demands removing starters early for bullpen firemen.
Run Expectancy Matrix (RE24)
The 24 base/out states define the expected runs scored in an inning. With bases loaded and 0 outs, the batting team expects 2.28 runs. With 2 outs and bases empty, run expectancy plunges to 0.10 runs.
Win Probability Added (WPA)
WPA quantifies how much a single batted ball or strikeout alters a team's probability of advancing. A clutch double with 2 outs in the 8th inning can swing win probability by +35% to +45% in one swing.
Model Sabermetric Framework & Probabilities View Calculations ▼
This simulator implements empirical Markov-chain run expectancy approximations derived from Major League Baseball postseason run environments. Win Expectancy (WE) is calculated based on:
- Current run differential ($\Delta R = R_{\text{home}} - R_{\text{away}}$)
- Inning and half-inning remaining outs ($N = (9 - \text{Inning}) \times 3 + \text{Remaining Outs}$)
- Normal distribution cumulative probability function over remaining run production variance ($\sigma^2 \propto \text{outs remaining}$)
- Adjustments for home-field last licks advantage in the bottom of the 9th or extra innings
- Leverage Index ($pLI = \frac{\Delta WE}{\text{Average } \Delta WE}$), identifying critical swing opportunities for bullpen deployments