The Wisconsin Political Record Electoral Simulation & Precedent Engine Milwaukee & Statewide Analysis

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary & Historical Timeline Simulator

Modeling the demographic dynamics, urban mobilization, and historical precedent behind Democrat David Crowley’s against-the-odds primary race to potentially become Wisconsin's first Black governor.

Simulation Controls D3 Calibrated
85%

Electoral support and mobilization depth across Milwaukee County key precincts.

48%

Moderate Democratic and independent crossover in Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties.

78%

Field canvassing index and small-dollar donor density statewide.

42.5%

Projected primary turnout percentage across registered voters.

Projected Primary Status
Simulated Historic Primary Win
Projected Vote Share
51.4%
Democratic Primary Field
Coalition Index
84.2/100
Weighted Mobilization Score
Historical Precedent Comparison
Highest primary mobilization in Milwaukee County since 2018
Surpasses previous gubernatorial primary performance metrics in urban concentration while matching high-water turnout benchmarks in Dane and southwestern counties.

Demographic & Regional Mobilization Breakdown

Estimated primary votes & win shares by region

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Benchmark Records

Primary & General Election Parallels
Cycle Candidate & Context Milwaukee Base Suburban Support Turnout Primary / Outcome
2026 Sim David Crowley (Current Projection) 85% 48% 42.5% 51.4% (Nomination)
2022 Tony Evers (Incumbent General) 79% 41% 57.8% Won General (51.2%)
2018 Tony Evers (Primary Win) 68% 39% 38.2% Won Primary (41.8% plurality)
2018 Scott Walker (GOP Incumbent) 34% 62% 57.4% Lost General (48.4%)
2010 Tom Barrett (Milwaukee Mayor Primary) 74% 36% 31.4% Won Primary uncontested
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