Wisconsin Primary Concession Simulator
LMSR Engine
Prediction Market Automated Market Maker & Probability Distribution Desk
Liquidity Parameter (b)
1,000
Implied Volatility
Moderate
Total Volume
$142,500
Order Terminal
Reset Market
Concession Deadline Contract
Election Night (11 PM)
24 Hours Post-Polls
72 Hours Post-Polls
Official Certification
Shares Quantity:
100
Buy YES
Buy NO (Sell)
Expected Cost:
$36.15
Max Potential Payout:
$100.00
Avg Price per Share:
$0.3615
Post-Trade Implied Prob:
37.31%
Preset Political Scenarios
Decisive Blowout
Razor Thin
Mail-In Surge
Live Election News Toggles
Margin < 0.5% (Automatic Recount)
Milwaukee Mail-In Count Delay
Legal Challenge Filed
Concession Deadline Probability Curve
Live LMSR Probability Distribution
Market Depth & Liquidity Map
LMSR Cost Gradient / Share Liquidity
Portfolio Positions & Execution Log
Export JSON
Export CSV
Timestamp
Outcome Deadline
Direction
Shares
Total Cost
Implied Prob
Wisconsin Primary Concession Market State
Refocus Result Surface
Selected Outcome Contract
Election Night (11 PM)
Calculated Execution Cost
$36.15
Implied Probability Vector
[37.31%, 40.51%, 14.47%, 7.72%]
Arbitrage Spread / Sum Proof
100.00% (Balanced Market)
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