Five-Year Retrospective · 2021–2026

Afghanistan Five-Year Post-Withdrawal Living Conditions & Freedom Tracker

Five years after America's military exit in August 2021, peacetime conditions reveal a compound crisis: severe material deterioration across household purchasing power and food security, coupled with the world's most pervasive systemic curtailment of female civil liberties.

Grounded Analysis: The Economist & UN Field Reporting Milestone Year: 2026 (5 Years Post-Exit) Slug: afghanistan-post-withdrawal-tracker-90

Timeline Scrubber (Years Post-Withdrawal)

2026 (Year 5)

2021 (Aug Exit) 2022 (Yr 1) 2023 (Yr 2) 2024 (Yr 3) 2025 (Yr 4) 2026 (Yr 5)

Filter Analytical Lens:

Poverty Rate

88%

vs 47% pre-exit baseline

Female Schooling Ban

Grade 6+

Secondary & University banned

Foreign Dev Aid

-75%

Direct budget aid suspended

Acute Food Insecurity

15.3M

Afghan citizens affected

Divergence Trajectory (2020 Baseline to 2026)

Comparing economic deprivation and rights curtailment severity indices (0 = baseline, 100 = extreme crisis)

Interactive Live D3 Plot

Female Liberties Curtailment Index

Poverty & Income Deprivation (%)

Aid Loss / Budget Deficit Index

Systemic Policy Decrees Ledger

Displaying all decrees up to selected year

7 Decrees

Pre-Withdrawal Baseline (2020) vs. Current Reality (2026)

Comprehensive sectoral indicator matrix under regime consolidation

Indicator Domain	Pre-August 2021 Baseline	2026 Observed Status (5 Yrs Post)	5-Year Cumulative Shift	Primary Institutional Driver
Girls' Secondary Education	1.1M enrolled in grades 7–12	Strictly Banned (0 enrolled)	-100% Access	March 2022 Ministry of Education decree
Women's Higher Education	~100,000 enrolled in public/private univs	Strictly Banned	-100% University Access	December 2022 Higher Education suspension
Female NGO & UN Employment	Widespread participation in field missions	Prohibited with rare exceptions	Critical delivery paralysis	Dec 2022 / April 2023 UN worker bans
Population in Poverty	47% of population	88% of population	+41 percentage points	Banking freeze, aid collapse, loss of female incomes
International Budgetary Aid	Covered 75% of public expenditures	$0 direct budget support (Cash aid only)	-75% State fiscal capacity	Off-budget humanitarian cash shipments only
Public Parks, Baths & Gyms Access	Unrestricted public access	Banned for all females	Total public sphere exclusion	November 2022 Virtue & Vice Ministry decree
Acute Food Insecurity	Approx. 12.2M under IPC Phase 3+	15.3M in severe food crisis	+25% food insecurity rise	Drought, purchasing power collapse, aid funding gaps

Interactive Scenario Cross-Examiner: Aid Inflow vs. Household Poverty

Model the sensitivity of household survival to humanitarian cash shipments and female workforce exclusion

Hypothetical UN Weekly Cash Shipments: $40M / week (Current baseline)

$0 (Full Embargo) $40M (Status Quo) $80M (Pre-2021 Scale)

Female Employment Re-integration: 0% (Full Ban)

0% (Current Decrees) 50% (Partial Relief) 100% (Pre-2021 Level)

Projected Poverty Rate Under Scenario:

88.0%

Current baseline models ongoing humanitarian cash infusions preserving bare survival, offset by an estimated $1.2B annual GDP loss solely from female labor force ban.

Structured Dossier Synthesis Output

Ready for institutional citation and field research verification

The machine-readable briefing below captures the full 5-year chronological indicator state, active decree catalog, and cross-sectoral regression data.