Aggregated Burst Probability
14.0%
0.0% vs Baseline
Horizon Hazard Rate
1.24%
Monthly failure density
Primary Dominant Trigger
Revenue Miss
35.0% likelihood
Cascade Amplification Factor
1.18x
Coupling multiplier
Interactive Probability Cascade Tree Drag nodes • Toggle link dependencies
12 Months
MODEL VERDICT & SCENARIO CAPTURE ACTIVE STATE

Under the 12-Month Horizon, the implied probability of an AI bubble burst is 14.0%. The highest driver is Major AI Cloud Revenue Miss with an individual probability of 35.0% and cascade factor of 1.18x.