Implied Probability
68.0%
Market YES Contract Price
Expected Value
$4.08B
Implied Acquisition EV ($6.0B deal)
Annualized Yield
14.7%
Risk-Adjusted Arbitrage IRR
Break-Even NO Price
0.320
1 - Implied YES Probability
Prediction Market Order Book Depth
D3 Depth Ladder
Outcome Probability & Payoff Density
Math.js Model
Scenario Strategy Analysis
Arbitrage Return on Settlement
47.1% Net Payout
Capital payout of $1.00 on YES contract bought at current market ask.
Regulatory & Timeline Sensitivity
2.8 Year Holding Horizon
Holding period discounting reflects antitrust clearance & closing steps.
Market Arbitrage Status
Baseline Market Equilibrium
Prediction contracts reflect 68.0% consensus probability for deal completion.