Inning Presets & Runners High Leverage
RUNNERS ON 1ST & 3RD • 1 OUT
Run Expectancy (RE)
1.54
0 Runs Allowed
Win Probability (WPA)
68.4%
+14.2% shift
Leverage Index (LI)
3.12
High Stress
Damage Prevention
1.54
Runs Suppressed
*Calculated using MLB 24-state run expectancy matrices for 7th-inning home leads.
AJ Blubaugh Pitch Sequence Scrubber Pitch 6 of 6 (Inning Over)
SEQUENCE SCRUBBER
Pitch 6: Sinker (Weak Groundout to 2B)
Catcher's Perspective
Strike
Ball
In Play / Out
At-Bat Breakdown vs Clean-up Batter
Alternate Path Analysis: What If Damage Wasn't Limited?
The 24-State Run Expectancy Rule: In the top of the 7th with runners on 1st and 3rd and 1 out, an average MLB offense scores 1.54 runs before the 3rd out. By inducing a pop out and a weak groundout, AJ Blubaugh surrendered 0 runs, shifting Astros win probability from 54.2% up to 68.4% and cementing the 3-2 victory.