Matchup & Final
Texas 31, Michigan 12
The Big House • Att: 111,170
Selected Play Status
4th & 10 at TEX 38
Q4 01:40 Remaining
Win Probability (Home)
0.3%
Leverage Index: 0.14x
Drive Context
8 Plays, 42 Yards
Turnover on Downs
100-Yard Regulation Field • Play Vector Trajectory
Michigan Ball
Opponent Ball
Line of Scrimmage
1st Down Line
Play Path
4th Quarter Win Probability & Leverage Timeline
Scrub play marker or click any point along the 4th quarter timeline
Play 25 / 28
Play Inspector • Live Telemetry
Q4 01:40
4th & 10: Davis Warren incomplete deep pass intended for Semaj Morgan at TEX 25. Turnover on downs.
Play Type / Gain
Pass 0 Yds
EPA Swing
-1.84
Leverage Index
0.14x
4th Quarter Play Sequence (Click to jump):
Big House End-Game Scenario Engine
Situational Model
Simulate late-game 2-minute drill decision making at Michigan Stadium:
Projected Outcome & Expected Value
WIN PROBABILITY
1.4%
EXPECTED CLOCK DRAIN
14 seconds
Trailing by multi-scores with 1:40 on the clock, deep vertical pass offers highest single-play EPA (+2.1) but carries high variance and turnover-on-downs leverage.