Prediction Market Implied Odds & Position Sizer

Order Desk Parameters

Market Contract Question

Market Implied Odds ($0.00 to $1.00)

BUY YES

$0.31

BUY NO

$0.69

Target Option Price (Yes): $0.31

Trader Estimated True Probability (p): 45.0%

Total Available Bankroll ($)

Resolution Target Date

Kelly Sizing Mode

Simulated Market Order Shares: 500

Kelly Criterion Formula:
f* = (p - q) / (1 - price)
Where p is belief (45%), q = 1 - p, and payout odds b = (1 - price) / price.

Quantitative Analytics Matrix

Implied Probability

31.0%

Market Price $0.31

Perceived Edge

+14.0%

Belief (45%) vs Market

Recommended Stake

$202.90

Kelly Fraction: 20.29%

Expected Value (EV)

+45.16%

Max Payout: $654.52

Primary Proof Target: Completed Quant Position Profile

Contract Implied Probability: 31.0%

Trader Perceived Edge: +14.0%

Kelly Optimal Fraction: 0.2029

Calculated Recommended Stake: $202.90

Expected Value Return: +45.16%

Maximum Potential Payout: $654.52