Prediction Market Implied Odds & Position Sizer

Order Desk Parameters

Market Contract Question

Market Implied Odds ($0.00 to $1.00)

BUY YES

$0.31

BUY NO

$0.69

Target Option Price (Yes): $0.31

Trader Estimated True Probability (p): 45.0%

Total Available Bankroll ($)

Resolution Target Date

Kelly Sizing Mode

Simulated Market Order Shares: 500

Kelly Criterion Formula:
f* = (p - q) / (1 - price)
Where p is belief (45%), q = 1 - p, and payout odds b = (1 - price) / price.

Quantitative Analytics Matrix

Implied Probability

31.0%

Market Price $0.31

Perceived Edge

+14.0%

Belief (45%) vs Market

Recommended Stake

$202.90

Kelly Fraction: 20.29%

Expected Value (EV)

+45.16%

Max Payout: $654.52

Primary Proof Target: Completed Quant Position Profile

Contract Implied Probability: 31.0%

Trader Perceived Edge: +14.0%

Kelly Optimal Fraction: 0.2029

Calculated Recommended Stake: $202.90

Expected Value Return: +45.16%

Maximum Potential Payout: $654.52

Price, belief and fraction scaling in the saved odds model

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Read the explanation

The saved implied-odds workbench starts from a share cost point three one and a user-entered probability belief point four five. A one-dollar binary payout has modeled net expectation belief minus cost, point one four per share. Dividing by cost gives about forty-five point one six percent expected return under that belief. The bars show cost thirty-one percent versus entered belief forty-five percent. The example supplies no evidence that the belief or the original market label is true, current or calibrated. The source computes its full Kelly fraction as belief minus price divided by one minus price. Point one four divided by point six nine is about point two zero two nine. Its one-thousand-unit bankroll then maps that fraction to about two hundred two point nine zero units. Half mode multiplies by one half, giving about one hundred one point four five. These bars show the implemented fraction scaling, not a recommendation to stake real money or a guarantee of growth. Select NO and the source complements both inputs. Cost becomes point six nine and entered NO belief becomes point five five, so the expected net payoff is minus point one four. The unscaled formula is negative and the source clamps its displayed fraction to zero. Its order-size slippage field is separately order shares divided by fifty thousand: five hundred shares produces one percent. That slippage is an assumed display model and is not subtracted from the Kelly formula. Preserve the complete export to distinguish each assumption.