2029
Threshold breached at 50% probability
1.84°C
Occurs in 2049
53 yrs
Returns <1.5°C in 2082
210 Gt
Total removal needed by 2100
Global Net CO₂ Emissions (2020–2100)
Temperature Anomaly Response (°C)
2026
Year global annual greenhouse gas emissions reach maximum before sustained decline.
3.5%/yr
Annual percentage reduction in gross emissions after peak (historical avg ~0.5–1.5%).
6.0 Gt/yr
Engineered & nature-based negative emissions scaled to draw down atmospheric carbon.
IPCC AR6 Trajectory Comparison Matrix
| Scenario Name | Peak Year | Cut Rate | CDR Floor | 1.5°C Exhaustion | Peak Anomaly | Overshoot Years | Status |
|---|