Posterior Probability
0.72
Updated P(H|E) via Bayes' Rule
Expected Share Yield
Expected Profit per Contract Share
Market Mispricing Edge
14%
Implied Edge vs. Contract Price
Statistical Z-Score
3.12
Significance vs. Baseline Noise
Bayesian Probability Density Shift
Prior Distribution
Posterior Distribution
Market Contract Price
Prediction Market Payoff Matrix
| Outcome State | Prior Belief P(H) | Updated Posterior P(H|E) | Market Price | Payout / Share | Expected ROI |
|---|
Bayesian Market Analysis Summary
Evaluating FBI stats (D.C. homicides down 44% from baseline 274). The statistical significance Z-score of 3.12 indicates strong signal strength exceeding standard municipal noise bounds. Updating prior probability of 0.35 with 81.2% signal reliability yields a posterior probability of 0.72. The contract priced at $0.58 offers a $0.14 expected value per share (14% mispricing edge).