Source Evidence Captured Tweet & Numbers
NFL
@NFL
·
25m
.
@Eagles recover the fumble
Stream on
@NFLPlus
15
29
30
374
375
88K
89K
Captured Facts (from tweet)
Modeled Estimates (reconstructed)
Situation Reconstructor Win Probability Impact
Pre-recovery18%
Post-recovery31%
+13 pp
Historical Context 47 Similar Fumble Recoveries Since 2010
Historical baseline: Teams recovering a fumble while down 10–17 points in Q3 at midfield (40–60 yard line) saw a median win probability increase of +11 percentage points. 68% of recovering teams went on to win. Current modeled scenario: +13 pp swing (18% → 31%), placing at the 62nd percentile of historical outcomes.