Fed Hike Odds & ECB Repricing Simulator

MACRO SHOCK DRIVERS Walter Bloomberg Baseline

PRESET SCENARIOS

ECB Rate Action 25 bps

0 bps (Pause) 25 bps (Baseline) 50 bps (Aggressive)

Energy Inflation Shock Index 78.5

0.0 (Deflationary) 50.0 (Neutral) 100.0 (Extreme Hawkish)

CROSS-BORDER TRANSMISSION

+22.4 bps

IMPLIED KALSHI SPREAD

+28.0 pts

Transmission Mechanism: An ECB hike exerts upward pressure on global sovereign yields. Coupled with energy inflation, market participants reprice the Fed's reaction function toward an active policy response.

SEPTEMBER FOMC IMPLIED ODDS DISTRIBUTION STATUS: CONVERGED

25-bp Hike: 64.0% No Change (Hold): 36.0%

Active Preset: Walter Bloomberg Baseline

Computed Hike: 64.0%

Computed Hold: 36.0%

Market Shift: +28.0%

Model Status: Converged