Kalshi Fed Rate Hike Implied Probability & Contract Simulator

FOMC Path Node Manipulator

Cumulative Hike Prob

65.0%

Implied Year-End Rate

5.41%

Treasury Yield Curve Shift (D3.js) Maturity vs Yield (%)

2Y Shift

+18.3 bps

5Y Shift

+12.5 bps

10Y Shift

+7.5 bps

30Y Shift

+3.2 bps

Kalshi Binary Contract EV Simulator

YES Contract Price ($)

Bankroll Capital ($)

YES Expected Value

$0.65

YES Expected ROI

+53.85%

Kelly Suggestion

0.00%

Suggested Position

Model Diagnostics & Data Export

This simulator translates prediction market implied probabilities (e.g., Kalshi's rate hike odds) directly into macroeconomic yield curve adjustments and binary position sizing metrics.